“Census knowledge are important for a lot of functions, together with the implementation of welfare schemes. As an instance, the variety of individuals benefiting from subsidised meals rations would improve by greater than 100 million if up to date census figures had been obtainable to revise the protection of the Nationwide Meals Safety Act” File
| Photograph Credit score: The Hindu

Why has the 2021 Census been delayed for thus lengthy? Right here is one believable reply: the Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP) is delaying the Census as a result of it desires to fast-track the “delimitation” train in anticipation of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

If this sounds absurd, assume once more. The 84th modification of the Structure clearly states that the following delimitation train is to be based mostly on the primary census after 2026. If the following census occurs, say, in 2024 or 2025, then delimitation should wait till after the next census, i.e. someday within the 2030s. So, if the BJP desires delimitation earlier than the 2029 elections, then it should proceed to tug its toes on the census till 2026 and even 2027 (since a 2026 census might not qualify as having taken place “after 2026”).

Delimitation refers to periodic makes an attempt to make sure that the shares of various States in Lok Sabha seats are much like their respective inhabitants shares, and likewise that every one constituencies have the identical inhabitants measurement so far as attainable, as required beneath Article 81 of the Structure. As is well-known, the forthcoming delimitation train is more likely to shift the stability of Lok Sabha seats in favour of States which have skilled comparatively quick inhabitants progress since 1973, when the final inter-State delimitation was carried out (based mostly on the 1971 Census). This implies, specifically, that the seat shares of the northern States will develop on the expense of the southern States. Naturally, it is a can of worms. A few of the southern States might insurgent. If the BJP is ready to get away with this, nevertheless, its electoral prospects will enhance, because it has a a lot stronger base within the north than within the south.

The Opposition might attempt to thwart this plot by insisting on the well timed completion of the Census, earlier than 2026. There may be actually an goal argument for it. Census knowledge are important for a lot of functions, together with the implementation of welfare schemes. As an instance, the variety of individuals benefiting from subsidised meals rations would improve by greater than 100 million if up to date census figures had been obtainable to revise the protection of the Nationwide Meals Safety Act. Suspending the Census deprives many individuals of important entitlements. The Opposition might feed two birds with one crumb by insisting on an early census and deferred delimitation. The problem may be taken to the Supreme Courtroom: setting the date of the Census is the Central authorities’s privilege beneath the legislation however suspending the 2021 Census by greater than 5 years might be construed as an abuse of privilege and infringement of individuals’s basic rights.

Nevertheless, there’s a catch, or so it might appear. This catch is said to girls’s reservation. The 106th modification of the Structure, handed final September, supplies for one-third reservation of seats for girls within the Lok Sabha and State Assemblies. Beneath Part 5, this is because of come into impact “after an train of delimitation is undertaken for this objective after the related figures for the primary census taken after [2023] have been revealed” (emphasis added). To this point, this has been interpreted to imply that girls’s reservation would start after the bigger delimitation train required by the 84th modification. In that case, an early census would postpone girls’s reservation, by suspending delimitation. Nevertheless, the phrases “for this objective” in Part 5 may also be learn to imply that girls’s reservation might proceed on the idea of its personal delimitation train (involving nothing greater than the designation of “girls solely” constituencies) upfront of the bigger delimitation train. Subsequently, nothing prevents the Opposition from arguing for (1) an early Census, (2) girls’s reservation from then onwards beneath the 106th modification, and (3) delimitation afterward (someday within the 2030s) beneath the 84th modification.

How a lot is the BJP more likely to achieve from delimitation? Earlier than June 4, 2024, it appeared prefer it had quite a bit to realize as a result of it had overwhelming help within the northern States and little or no within the south. At this time, that image has modified, because the BJP misplaced floor within the north however gained some within the south. Nonetheless, the BJP nonetheless has a robust stake in delimitation. To see this, think about the next train. If the seat shares of political events inside States had been to be stored fixed even because the 543 Lok Sabha seats had been redistributed throughout States in proportion to their present inhabitants, how would this have an effect on the general seat shares of the NDA and INDIA coalitions immediately? The reply is that the NDA’s seat share would rise by about 3 proportion factors, from 54% (294 seats out of 543) to 57%, whereas INDIA’s share would drop by 2 proportion factors or so. In absolute phrases, because of this the NDA would have about 309 seats as an alternative of 294 – an additional 15 seats. This can be a large deal. The reverse aspect of the coin, nevertheless, is that delimitation may result in a backlash in opposition to the BJP within the south. The BJP might or might not resolve to cross that creaky bridge earlier than 2029.

The very fact stays that suspending the Census is tough to justify. Apart from obstructing girls’s reservation, it deprives thousands and thousands of individuals of important entitlements. They shouldn’t be held hostage to any occasion’s electoral stratagems.

Jean Drèze is Visiting Professor on the Division of Economics, Ranchi College.