The United Democratic Front (UDF) has emerged victorious in the byelection in Puthuppally, and this outcome comes as no major surprise. The region has an inherent anti-Left sentiment, and the personal charisma of the late Oommen Chandy, a prominent UDF leader, played a significant role in this victory. Riding the emotional wave triggered by Chandy’s death, the UDF dominated the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), winning all eight panchayats in the segment. Impressively, it secured a lead in all but one of the 182 booths across the segment. The UDF, led by the Congress-led coalition, skillfully capitalized on the perceived surge in anti-incumbency against the Pinarayi Vijayan government, maintaining a systematic approach throughout the campaign. Leader of the Opposition V.D. Satheesan supervised the coalition’s efforts and focused on grassroots campaigning.
Whenever the Left Democratic Front (LDF) attempted to disrupt the UDF’s momentum, the UDF swiftly mounted a counter-attack on the state government. The personal attacks on Mr. Oommen’s family members also seemed to backfire on the LDF.
“The wind was in our favor right from the beginning. The people used the byelection as an avenue to express their discontent over an audacious, nepotistic Chief Minister,” remarked K. Sudhakaran, president of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC).
Although the LDF managed to retain its core votes of over 40,000, it needed much more than just party votes to have a chance at winning. In a region where the Christian electorate and agrarian politics hold considerable influence, motivating the middle-of-the-road voters was crucial. The factional dispute in the Malankara Church, which worked in favor of the coalition in the past, did not have a significant impact this time.
The shocking defeat in this byelection has left the LDF camp stunned into silence, despite their successes in the local body elections. Both the CPI(M) and the Kerala Congress (M), an LDF constituent with influence in the rubber-growing areas, may struggle to comprehend this outcome.
“When the result is compared to that of previous elections, we can see that the LDF has not lost its political base. I cannot identify any lapses in the electioneering as it was not easy to win an election against such a strong emotional backdrop,” said Jaick C. Thomas, the LDF candidate.
The outcome of this byelection also poses questions for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has now been relegated to a third position with a further decline in its vote share. Despite a well-coordinated campaign spearheaded by its national general secretary Radha Mohandas Agarwal, the party failed to prevent upper-caste Hindu votes from flowing to the UDF. With less than one-sixth of the vote share, the BJP also stands to lose its deposit in this election.
